IMD November weather forecast: Will India see warmer days, cooler nights and below-normal rainfall?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country for November. The weather department, however, expects normal to below-normal maximum temperatures in some areas along the Himalayan foothills.

In its monthly forecast released on Saturday, the IMD said above-normal minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of India. Central and eastern regions are exceptions, with several areas expected to record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.

November rainfall likely to remain below normal

The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country during November. However, some areas in central, northwest and Northeast India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Overall, India is expected to receive around 77% of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the month. The LPA for November, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at around 29.7 mm.

South Peninsular India is also likely to receive 77% of its LPA rainfall in November. The region's November LPA, based on the same 1971-2020 period, is around 118.7 mm.

LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a particular region during a specified period over several decades, generally 30 to 50 years. It is used as a benchmark to assess whether rainfall is normal, above normal or below normal.

Very strong El Nino conditions likely in November-December

The weather department said very strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to continue during November and December.

El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon linked to changes in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, along with changes in the atmosphere above it.

While El Nino generally has a warming effect on the planet, its opposite phase, La Nina, is usually associated with cooling. ENSO also has a neutral phase.

October records highest average maximum temperature since 1901

The IMD said very strong El Niño conditions could be among the key reasons behind the unusually high temperatures recorded in October this year.

India's monthly average maximum temperature stood at 32.43 degrees Celsius in October, the highest for the month since 1901. This was above the normal average maximum temperature of 31.37 degrees Celsius.

The monthly average minimum temperature was also elevated at 20.83 degrees Celsius, making it the fifth-highest for October since 1901. The normal average minimum temperature for the month is 20.01 degrees Celsius.