How the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the Senate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explains how a pair of controversies in Michigan and Alaska could impact the broader battle for Senate control. Plus, Rebecca Shabad examines President Donald Trump’s election eve message.

— Adam Wollner

How the Michigan and Alaska dramas shape the fight for the Senate

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

An “October surprise” and a “November surprise” have rocked the Senate races in Alaska and Michigan, which are critical chess pieces in the battle for the majority.

To understand why these contests are so important, consider two scenarios.

The “red wall” scenario: Picture this: Democrats are having a good night and hold every seat they are defending, including in Michigan. They flip North Carolina. And they accomplish their long-held goal of unseating GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. That would leave Democrats with 49 seats.

Other targets would include five states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas. There’s a plausible scenario where Democratic candidates in those states overperform by 10 points compared to the 2024 presidential margin, and still lose all of them.

The “blue tsunami” scenario: Now consider this: Michigan and Maine tip into the Democratic column and, one by one, all five of the red states start to fall. The blue wave turns into a tsunami and breaches the walls of MAGA country.

Through some mix of depressed Republican turnout, swing-voter movement and high Democratic enthusiasm, Democrats win Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska. That’s their dream scenario, and it’d result in a 54-46 Senate majority. And if South Carolina flips, that’s 55 seats.

The Michigan and Alaska scenarios: That brings us to two states that have sparked controversy lately.

In Michigan, Haley Stevens, the runner-up in the Democratic primary, defected from her party and endorsed Republican Mike Rogers two days before the election. It’s a race where Democrats already were experiencing anxiety over progressive Abdul El-Sayed’s prospects.

If Democrats lose Michigan, their path to the majority gets steeper: They would need to flip at least three double-digit Trump states, rather than two.

In Alaska, a New York Times report that Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign recruited a candidate with the same name as GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan jolted the race, and the saga is under state and federal investigation. Peltola has denied any involvement in the effort. (Over the weekend, a federal judge dismissed the Trump administration’s effort to segregate ballots cast for Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher and first-time candidate.)

There’s a scenario where Senate control comes down to Alaska. And if the race is close, it may not be decided for a while.

Alaska law allows up to 15 days for absentee ballots to arrive, as long as they’re postmarked by Election Day, Nov. 3. That means counting can continue through Nov. 18, and the target date to certify the election is Nov. 25, the day before Thanksgiving.

If it’s very close, a candidate could demand a recount. There could be a court fight. That would put the country into December without knowing which party will control the Senate.

🏃 Related read: ‘A genuine toss-up’: Senate battle comes down to red states and Republican voters, by Bridget Bowman

Ahead of Election Day, Trump sets the stage for potential Republican losses

By Rebecca Shabad

In an election-eve speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, President Donald Trump said that Republicans “gave this a very strong shot,” while acknowledging that historically, the president’s party “doesn’t win the midterms.”

“This is the last day before the midterm elections — the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime,” Trump said. “The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history. These are the most dangerous candidates ever put up.”

Although a White House official had said in advance that the speech would represent Trump’s “closing message” before voters make their final trips to the polls, the president spent most of his remarks speaking about the Reflecting Pool.

Trump announced the Reflecting Pool will reopen after months of repairs, and talked about other renovation projects he has ordered around Washington, D.C., a key focus and fascination of his second term.

Speaking about the election, the president touted what he considered economic wins. But, he said, “it all doesn’t matter if we’re going to be foolish and let people that hate our country win an election.”

Trump’s speech today came after he held his final midterm rally in Kansas last night — one of 28 for him over the last month, Peter Nicholas notes.

“I’m closing the sucker down,” Trump told the crowd, standing in a chilly evening breeze. “I’m getting out of here. I got to get a little sleep. I’ve been doing a little too many of these.”

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That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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