US midterm elections 2026: What could change for H-1B visas and green cards as immigration policy faces big test | Explained

US midterm elections 2026: The United States will hold its midterm elections on November 3 which could be a major test for the country’s immigration policy. As the polls are shaping up, the lawmakers have proposed amendments that could affect H-1B visas, green cards and deportations.

The voters will decide the composition of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.

The outcome will determine the political balance in Congress from January 2027 and, in turn, the legislative environment in which the Trump administration will operate for the remainder of its term.

The election comes as Trump’s approval rating stands at 32 per cent, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on September 21. The poll found 43 per cent of respondents backing a Democratic candidate for Congress and 35 per cent a Republican candidate. It surveyed 1,277 US adults and had a margin of error of three percentage points.

For Indians, the major issues include proposed salary thresholds for skilled-worker visas, a possible pause on H-1B issuance and changes to the employment-based green-card system.

What could change for H-1B visas?

Republican Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has introduced the Protecting American Workers Through H-1B Modernization Act, which would change a salary threshold that has remained at USD 60,000 since 1998.

Under existing rules, certain H-1B-dependent employers face additional requirements intended to protect US workers. However, an H-1B employee can qualify as an "exempt" worker if the person earns at least USD 60,000 or holds a master's degree or higher.

Husted's bill would replace the fixed USD 60,000 salary threshold with a level equal to twice the Social Security Administration's national average wage index. His office said that would currently put the threshold at nearly USD 140,000.

The threshold would then move with wages rather than remaining fixed. The bill was referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee.

“For decades, companies have been able to sidestep hiring American workers because of a salary threshold that hasn’t budged since 1998. That’s not modernization, that’s a loophole,” Husted said.

What could change for green cards?

Republican Representative David Schweikert of Arizona introduced the SMARTER Act in September. The proposal would make major changes to the way the US distributes employment-based green cards.

Instead of the existing employment-based preference structure, the legislation proposes a points system that would rank applicants using factors including age, education, English proficiency, job offers and compensation. Higher salaries would receive more points.

However, senators Dick Durbin and Alex Padilla and Representatives Jamie Raskin and Pramila Jayapal were among lawmakers who challenged a USCIS policy affecting adjustment-of-status applications.

They called on USCIS to reverse guidance that they said creates a preference for green-card applicants to complete processing through US consulates abroad rather than adjusting status while inside the country.

What is shaping the 2026 campaign

The economy and cost of living, immigration and the war in Iran are among the major issues shaping the campaign. Trump’s record in office is also central to the political debate surrounding congressional candidates.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 17 per cent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which was identified as the top issue influencing their vote. His overall approval was 32 per cent, while 43 per cent backed Democrats and 35 per cent Republicans when asked which party they would support for Congress.

The national figures provide a snapshot of the political climate, but the actual congressional result will be determined through individual House and Senate contests across the country. Some Senate races in particular are receiving national attention because relatively few seats will determine which party controls the chamber.