US midterm elections 2026: How Iran war could shape the November polls

US midterm elections 2026: As the United States prepares to hold its midterm elections on November 3, one familiar question that shapes up is how voters feel about the economy.

On November 3, all 435 seats of the US House of Representatives will be up for grabs, as well as one-third of the 100-seat US Senate. Other state level positions can be on the ballot too.

For much of the year, the Iran war was viewed largely as a foreign-policy problem involving military objectives, nuclear policy, deterrence and negotiations. Now, its impact is reaching Americans through gasoline prices, government spending and questions over presidential war powers.

How it will reshape the polls

The war with Iran has pushed foreign policy into the midterm campaign while also feeding directly into the economic debate.

The conflict has challenged Trump's earlier promise to avoid getting the US involved in new foreign conflicts. It has also contributed to higher energy costs, giving Republicans another reason to worry about the political fallout.

The Week noted that some Republicans would prefer the White House to bring the conflict to an end, partly because of concerns about its impact on the economy and their reelection campaigns.

But Republicans have been reluctant to publicly break with Trump, whose support remains strong within the party.

The AP-KFF survey also found that rural voters rated Trump's handling of the Iran war similarly to his handling of the economy, showing that the issue is not confined to Washington's foreign-policy debate.

What is shaping the 2026 campaign

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 17 per cent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which was identified as the top issue influencing their vote. His overall approval was 32 per cent, while 43 per cent backed Democrats and 35 per cent Republicans when asked which party they would support for Congress.

The national figures provide a snapshot of the political climate, but the actual congressional result will be determined through individual House and Senate contests across the country. Some Senate races in particular are receiving national attention because relatively few seats will determine which party controls the chamber.

How the US election cycle works

The US holds congressional elections every two years, while presidential elections are held every four years. Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term and do not involve a vote for president.

Congress is made up of two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House has 435 members, each elected for a two-year term from a congressional district. The number of representatives allotted to each state is based on its population.

The Senate has 100 members, with two senators representing each state. Senators serve six-year terms, but their terms are staggered into three groups, meaning roughly one-third of the Senate is elected every two years.