Ukraine invests in firepower as it inflicts a new Russian casualty record

Ukraine’s military says Russian casualties reached 49,040 in October – a new monthly record.

The General Staff’s estimate of dead and incapacitated Russian troops, as of October 28, comes close to fulfilling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s goal set in January of at least 50,000 enemy casualties a month by the end of 2026.

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Zelenskyy had said that was “a level of destruction of the occupier at which Russian losses exceed the number of reinforcements they can send.”

The previous monthly high of 46,230 was set in September, with both records marking a sharp increase in reported Russian dead and wounded since the summer.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi called it a “massive industrial slaughter”.

(Al Jazeera)

Al Jazeera cannot independently verify casualty estimates by either side. Ukraine’s military says it has video documentation of each strike.

Aerial drones are responsible for most of the casualties Ukraine inflicts, and Ukrainian Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara this week asked his European allies for funding to double drone production next year to about 16 million units.

The goal, he said, was “to scale up joint production of Ukrainian drones in other countries”.

Zelenskyy has said Ukraine could even triple drone production given enough money. Ukraine has decided that mass is the key to winning the war against Russia in terms of firepower.

“We see signs that mass production is preferred over technological sophistication,” said Ukrainian Defence Ministry adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov. “Mass production and simplicity will overcome technology.”

On October 28, the Netherlands and UK took steps to help Ukraine achieve its goal.

The Netherlands said it would provide 500 million euros ($560m) in immediate additional military aid and 1.2 billion euros ($1.34bn) in additional financing.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham upped Britain’s commitments by 10 billion pounds ($13.4bn) over three years, of which 3 billion pounds ($4bn) will be for weapons.

Ukraine announced its Starlink satellite navigation services were back to normal on October 24. “Communication remains stable at speeds exceeding 400km/h,” said the Defence Ministry.

On October 14, Ukraine had reported it was losing control of its drones above about 150km/h (100mph), making it difficult to mount defence against Russian jet-powered drones travelling above 500km/h.

After initially denying involvement, Starlink owner Elon Musk said on October 24 that he had “closed a loophole” that had allowed Ukraine to use Starlink offensively.

But Ukraine appeared to be thinking beyond Starlink and its Pentagon-owned military-grade service, Starshield.

On October 22, Ukraine and Finland announced they were jointly developing an independent sovereign military satellite system. Poland-based ICEYE and Finnish Nokia said they were partnering to realise the system, which would begin to launch satellites in 2028.

Other Europeans may be interested. On October 28, Zelenskyy also discussed satellite technology collaboration with Dutch premier Rob Jetten.

Ukraine said while they lasted, Starlink’s speed restrictions damaged its interception of Russian jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones.

Ukrainian paramedics help a resident at the site of a Russian drone strike in Kharkiv, late on October 27 [Sergey Bobok/AFP]

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said the 10-day outage caused Ukraine’s interception rate to fall from 77 percent to 74 percent.

Yet the rate seemed to be improving regardless.

According to Ukrainian Air Force data, Ukraine managed to shoot down at least 75 percent of jet-powered drones during the week ending October 29.

That was far above the three-month average shoot-down rate of 60 percent for jet-powered drones, suggesting that Ukraine is adapting fast.

Still, many Russian drones are getting through. One struck a train platform in the central city of Dnipro on October 29, killing at least 14 people.

Ukraine is also concerned that the US administration is hesitating about sending ballistic missile interceptors European allies have paid for.

“The artificial and prolonged delays in the delivery of interceptor missiles for Patriot and NASAMS systems, which unfortunately have been occurring recently, are directly helping Russia achieve the goals of its terrorist campaign,” Zelenskyy said, after Russian ballistics hit a university campus in downtown Kyiv on October 27.

The previous day, Khmara had asked European allies to transfer 10 percent of their existing stocks of interceptors as an advance on future orders.

Police officers evacuate a resident from the front line rural settlement Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, October 19 [Reuters]

Ukraine struck Russia during the past week, too.

On October 23, Ukrainian missiles destroyed the main microchip production building of Proton-Electrotex in the city of Orel, which makes missile components.

During the week, Ukraine damaged five chemical plants, NAK Azot, Toliattykauchuk, Omskiy Kauchuk, Energiya and Voronezhsintezkauchuk, which make solid rocket propellants used in missiles.

It also damaged the Voronezh Aircraft Company and VSMPO-AVISMA, two factories building airframes or the metals for them.

Notes from underground

Ukraine has also been developing underground warfare, far from the battlefields monitored by drones, planes and satellites.

On October 22, its Khartiia Corps, originally a volunteer unit but now part of the National Guard, announced it had successfully completed an operation to flush Russian infiltrators out of a disused gas pipeline.

The Russians were using the pipeline to move troops from occupied parts of Kharkiv to the front line city of Kupiansk.

“The Russians tried to use underground gas pipelines to move past our positions. Our warriors turned this tactic against the Russians and used this system of underground pipelines against the occupiers with extraordinary success,” said Zelenskyy.

Ukraine’s Operation Veles advanced 15km (10 miles) underground through the pipeline and tunnels to emerge behind Russian positions, said Brigadier General Ihor Oboloenskyi.

Khartiia Corps said it coordinated underground attacks from pipes and tunnels with overland attacks and drones to surprise the enemy from several different directions at once, killing or wounding 100 Russian soldiers and capturing 30.

Russian forces had used the pipelines to evacuate their wounded, too, and were filmed marching Ukrainian civilians among them as human shields, said Viktor Tregubov, United Forces Group spokesman.

Ukraine’s forces besieged the Russians inside the pipeline, said Vladimir Dektyarev, an officer of Khartiia Corps. “Even after they were surrounded, they sat for over a month, until their food ran out, waiting for a command from their command for permission to surrender.”

Veles marked the third operation this year where Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back and reclaimed land.

In the south of the country, too, Ukrainian forces were reported to have liberated three settlements – Peredubova, Komar and Fedorivka – on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, expanding an area of reclaimed territory there.

People walk at the site of a residential area hit by a late evening Russian missile strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, October 30 [Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters]

Although the US is still on track to bring Ukrainian and Russian technical teams to the negotiating table on November 10, and Zelenskyy supported a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and grain exports, Russia downplayed expectations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of Ukraine as “the territory of historical Russia” on October 22, denying the existence of a Ukrainian people and refusing a ceasefire on energy infrastructure.

His foreign policy adviser, Valery Ushakov, said the talks “will not resolve much”.

When Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb held a call with Putin on October 27 – their first contact with him since assuming office – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the conversation as “Europeans’ desire to squeeze into the negotiation process.”