Telecom preview: Brokerages anticipate healthy Q2, led by ARPU and subscriber adds

In terms of subscriber adds, Airtel will continue to gain subscriber market share and is expected to report around 3 million India wireless subscribers sequentially | Photo Credit: PERIASAMY M

India’s telecom sector is expected to enjoy a healthy quarter with brokerages anticipating good ARPU growth and subscriber additions, including Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea. Analysts have also postponed the tariff hike to mid-2027.

The telecom operators are expected to report around a 0.8 to 2 per cent sequential increase in ARPU led by 2G to 4G/5G migration, postpaid addition, and a higher number of days in the quarter. Airtel will also benefit from the discontinuation of lower-value packs, likely to encourage subscribers to upgrade to higher-value plans.

However, the benefit will likely be limited to one month, as the tweaks were implemented in mid-August, with different frequencies/timelines of recharges also having an impact, said IIFL Capital.

In terms of subscriber adds, Airtel will continue to gain subscriber market share and is expected to report around 3 million India wireless subscribers sequentially. Meanwhile, Vi is expected to add around a million customers in the quarter.

“Data usage per customer would remain robust, led by growing penetration of 4G/5G networks. Airtel have covered over 95 per cent of districts with 5G services, and the focus is on adding more 5G devices to their network,” said Centrum.

Tariff hike delayed

While brokerages seemed confident of a tariff hike by the end of calendar 2026, analysts are now pushing the timeline to mid-2027.

“The pricing environment has become more favourable with only 3+1 players, and we expect another 12-15 per cent tariff hike over the next 4 to 5 months,” said Centrum. Meanwhile, JP Morgan pushed out tariff hikes from Q3 FY27 to Q1 FY28, leading to a cut in earnings estimates.

Analysts advise investors to focus on the impact of eliminating the entry-level plan by Airtel in August and the launch of a ‘Fast Lane’ plan during the previous quarter. Further, analysts flagged management commentary on its plan to launch a series of mobile plans with higher ARPUs. For Vi, brokerages focus on the timeline for its ₹300-350 billion debt fundraise, capex plans for the coming year and 5G rollout plans.

Published on November 2, 2026