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BSE Sensex delivered positive returns in 7 instances out of 10 years for the month of October with an average gain of 0.99%. October 2017 was the best-performing October in last 10 years, while 2018 was the weakest.
BSE Sensex's performance is often viewed as a barometer of India's economic and market health. Sensex is the Bombay Stock Exchange's (BSE) flagship index, which comprises 30 of the country's largest and most liquid companies; the index reflects broader investor sentiment towards the Indian economy, corporate earnings, liquidity conditions and global market cues.
The benchmark's performance in recent times has faced pressure, weighed by factors such as FII outflows, geopolitical uncertainty due to the conflict between the US and Iran, high US bond yields, a strong dollar and a weakening rupee.
Sensex performance
The index has declined across most time frames, falling 0.47 per cent in one week and 0.53 per cent in one month. It has dropped 4.34 per cent in three months, 4.91 per cent in six months and 13.30 per cent in one year, despite gaining 20.22 per cent over five years.
Against this backdrop, October has once again revived discussions around the so called "October Curse" or "October Effect", a market theory that suggests stock markets are particularly vulnerable to crashes and sharp corrections during the month.
The October Curse stems largely from some of the world's most infamous market crashes occurring during the month. The list includes the Panic of 1907, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, and Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 22% in a single trading session.
Has India fallen victim to the October effect?
*2026 return as of October 27
October has historically been a positive month for the Indian stock market, with gains recorded in seven out of the last 10 years, while three Octobers ended in the red. The average October return for the BSE Sensex stands at 0.99 per cent, indicating a generally positive trend during the month.
October 2017 was the best-performing period, delivering a return of 5.62 per cent. In contrast, October 2018 was the worst, with the stock declining 7.21 per cent.
| Metric | Value |
| Positive Octobers | 7 out of 10 |
| Negative Octobers | 3 out of 10 |
| Average October Return | +0.99% |
| Best October | 2017 (+5.62%) |
| Worst October | 2018 (-7.21%) |
October 2026 vs September 2026
The BSE Sensex has staged a partial recovery in October 2026 after suffering sharp losses in September, despite elevated crude oil prices.
The benchmark index declined around 6 per cent in September 2026, while it has recovered approximately 1.3 per cent in October so far.
The recovery has been driven primarily by strong corporate earnings, a relief rally in Information Technology (IT) stocks and selective institutional buying. In contrast, September's decline was largely influenced by heavy foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices.
Conclusion: Is the October Curse real?
For the Indian market, the evidence suggests the October Curse is more myth than reality.
While October has occasionally witnessed sharp corrections, the broader trend shows that Dalal Street has generally delivered positive returns during the month. Over the past decade, gains have outnumbered losses by more than two-to-one, and the average return has remained in positive territory.
(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)
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PremiumUpdated Oct 25, 2026 01:41 PM IST
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