India’s smartphone market records poorest Q3 in a decade this year

Consumers became more selective, extended their replacement cycles and deferred upgrades, while OEMs prioritised margin protection

New Delhi, October 23: India’s smartphone market declined by 20 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in the third (Q3) quarter this year, the poorest performance in the last one decade, a report by Counterpoint research said on Friday.

Entering 2027, the market is likely to remain on a challenging footing, as higher device prices continue to extend replacement cycles and limit volume recovery, it said in the Monthly India Smartphone Tracker report said adding that record-high memory prices drove up device costs, pulling down shipments for most brands.

It also said that amid persistently soft demand, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) held back on channel inventory, even ahead of the festive season.

Device Prices

“Rising component costs pushed device prices higher, putting increasing pressure on affordability and weakening the traditional mass-market volume engine, particularly below ₹15,000...Sub-₹20,000 shipments declined by 47 per cent in Q3 2026 as rising model prices pushed devices into higher price bands,” Shubham Singh, Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research said.

Consumers became more selective, extended their replacement cycles and deferred upgrades, while OEMs prioritised margin protection, portfolio rationalisation and leaner channel inventory over aggressive volume expansion ahead of Diwali, he said.

“Looking ahead, we expect India’s smartphone market to shrink by around 13 per cent in 2026, with continued pricing pressure weighing on affordability and replacement demand. The post-festive seasonal slowdown will add to the pressure, while elevated component costs are likely to drive another round of price hikes after the festive season sale,” Tarun Pathak, Research Director, Counterpoint Research said.

The impact is already visible in the mass market, where OEMs are restructuring portfolios by introducing more 4G and lower-specification models and trading down specifications across some price segments to manage costs while maintaining price points, he said.

Affordability

Going forward, growth opportunities will increasingly shift toward the premium and upper-mid segments, while the mass market remains under pressure from affordability constraints and tighter OEM margins, he mentioned.

“With upfront prices rising, no-cost EMIs, exchange offers and retailer-led promotions will become increasingly important conversion levers, helping consumers manage higher upgrade costs,” Pathak added.

In terms of market share, with a 17 per cent share in Q3 2026, Samsung reclaimed the top spot in the market after nine quarters, the report said adding that Samsung’s relatively measured price hikes and proactive management of rising memory costs helped it outperform the overall market.

Apple Sales

Vivo (excluding iQOO) was in second place in Q3 2026, with a 16 per cent share, followed by Oppo, retaining its third position with a 12 per cent market share, and Xiaomi (including POCO) ranked fourth with a 12 per cent share.

Apple has seen a strong start to the iPhone 18 Pro series in India, with initial sales nearly 20 per cent higher YoY than those of the iPhone 17 Pro series. Continued demand for the iPhone 17 line-up points to healthy consumer interest, even as Apple adjusts pricing across its portfolio amid rising memory and component costs, it added.

Published on October 23, 2026