India’s crude oil imports set to hit record 5.4 mb/d in October

India’s crude oil imports are on track to hit a record high of 5.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) during October 2026 backed by recovery in supply from West Asia and increasing arrivals from the Atlantic basin.

Russian crude arrivals (month-to-date) increased by around one lakh b/d M-o-M to 1.97 mb/d in October, although volumes remained well below July’s peak of 2.82 mb/d, said Nikhil Dubey, Kpler’s lead analyst for refining.

Russia accounted for around 35 per cent of total imports, down from 55 per cent in July. Russian flows could face further pressure in November and December as elevated freight costs erode their delivered-price advantage, while recovering West Asian supplies offer refiners increasingly competitive alternatives, he anticipated.

West Asian producers are positioning more aggressively to defend market share, with competitive offers on a delivered-at-port (DAP) basis and pricing concessions potentially narrowing the economic advantage of Russian crude, Dubey added.

Delivered cargoes reduce refiners’ direct exposure to freight market volatility compared with independently chartered shipments. Middle Eastern arrivals stood at around 2.3 mb/d in October, compared with 2.7 mb/d in September, with Saudi Arabia leading regional supplies, followed by Iraq.

Atlantic Basin barrels provided the main offset to the decline in Middle Eastern arrivals in October. West of Suez (WoS) crude arrivals (month-to-date) doubled to around 1.2 mb/d in October from 0.6 mb/d in September. Angola recorded the largest increase, with volumes reaching 282 kb/d from 36 kb/d in September, followed by Venezuela.

Crucial factors

On India’s rising crude oil supply from West Asia, Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline recently that the recovery has been supported by higher flows from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and other logistical arrangements have helped facilitate these flows, allowing Indian refiners to rebuild Middle Eastern purchases as regional supply availability improves, he explained.

Traders said that since late-May/ early-June, the UAE has used VLCCs to shuttle crude out of the Strait of Hormuz using the Oman channel. The crude is then transferred to other vessels via STS. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are also using a similar strategy.

On supply diversification, Ritolia had pointed out that African and Venezuelan barrels are also contributing to the diversification of India’s crude oil slate. 

Published on October 30, 2026