Cyclonic storm likely by October 26; heavy rain in Coastal Andhra from October 27: IMD

A low-pressure area has formed over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal, and it is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by Monday (October 26, 2026) morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday (October 23, 2026). The system is then forecast to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts.

In a special message, the IMD’s Cyclone Warning Centre in Visakhapatnam said the low-pressure area formed at around 5.30 a.m. on Friday under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation that was over the south-east and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday.

The system is most likely to remain over the same region and intensify into a depression on Saturday (October 24), the IMD said. It is then very likely to move west-northwestwards, intensifying into a deep depression on Sunday (October 25) and a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday morning. It would continue to intensify and move west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts over the following two days, the bulletin said.

Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) Managing Director Prakhar Jain said on Friday that the State was likely to receive widespread rain under the influence of the system. He advised the public and farmers to take precautions in advance, and asked fishermen to return to the coast without delay.

Heavy rain alert

On Thursday, the IMD’s Amaravati centre had said the system may bring heavy to very heavy rain to parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh from October 27. For October 27 and 28, it issued an ‘alert’ (be prepared) for heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places in Alluri Sitharama Raju (ASR), Kakinada, East Godavari, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari and NTR districts, and in Yanam. A ‘watch’ (be updated) for heavy rain at isolated places covers 10 other districts on both days, including Visakhapatnam.

P.L.N. Murthy, Head of the IMD’s Cyclone Warning Centre in Visakhapatnam, said on Thursday that if the system continued to intensify and became a cyclonic system, it might cross the coast between Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam. He added that in El Niño years, most post-monsoon cyclones in the Bay cross the coast south of 17° N. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models, Mr. Murthy said, indicated that very heavy rainfall was likely across northern Andhra Pradesh by October 27.

The IMD’s Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for tropical cyclones, New Delhi, said on Thursday that models differed on the system’s strength: some, including the ECMWF, pointed to a very severe cyclonic storm, while AI-based models showed a cyclonic storm at most.

Rain in Nellore, Prakasam

Heavy rain lashed Nellore and Prakasam districts on Thursday under the influence of the cyclonic circulation. Low-lying areas in several parts of both districts were waterlogged, and commuters faced traffic jams.

In the 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Thursday, Thottambedu in Tirupati district recorded 40.2 mm and Rapur in Nellore district 40 mm, the highest reported. During the day on Thursday, Nellore recorded 22 mm of rain, Kavali 15 mm and Cuddapah 13 mm, the IMD’s Amaravati centre said.

Kurnool had the highest maximum temperature among the stations listed, 35.3° C, 2.6° C above normal, while Ongole, Narsapur and Nellore were 3.9° C to 4.6° C below normal. Amaravati recorded 33.5° C, up 0.1° C from the previous day, and Visakhapatnam 32.7° C, 0.9° C above normal.

Thunderstorms with lightning and strong winds of 30 to 40 kmph are likely at isolated places over Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema on Saturday.