Andhra Pradesh braces for 11th very severe cyclonic storm

Andhra Pradesh has experienced 61 cyclonic storms since 1970, but only a few have intensified into Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS). The State is now bracing for one such storm, Arnab, nearly eight years after Titli struck in October 2018.

According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) records of cyclonic storms that affected the Andhra Pradesh coast between 1970 and 2023, the State witnessed 10 Very Severe Cyclonic Storms during the period. Arnab would be the 11th, if it reaches this intensity.

The IMD classifies cyclonic storms based on their maximum sustained wind speeds. A cyclonic storm has wind speeds of 62-88 kmph, a severe cyclonic storm 89-117 kmph, and a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 118-167 kmph. An Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm has wind speeds of 168-221 kmph, while a Super Cyclonic Storm has wind speeds exceeding 221 kmph.

The 10 previous VSCS events occurred in 1999, 2000, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2018. The year 2013 alone witnessed three such storms: Phailin in October, Lehar in November and Madi in December. In 2014, Hudhud caused extensive damage in Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam and East Godavari districts.

According to a case study by C. Hari Kiran of the Andhra Pradesh State Development Planning Society (APSDPS), Hudhud recorded wind speeds of 181.6 kmph. Phailin was even more intense, with wind speeds of 200-210 kmph. Weather models indicate that Arnab may be less intense, with its maximum wind speed expected to be around 140 kmph.

The last Very Severe Cyclonic Storm to affect the State, according to the IMD records, was Titli, which formed over the Bay of Bengal in October 2018 and made landfall near Palasa.

More recent cyclones, including Montha and Michaung, were classified as Severe Cyclonic Storms.